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Backwards Odds NBA Handicapping Analysis of Las Vegas NBA Odds and Betting Lines

An introduction to making NBA picks and predictions using Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA lines and NBA point spreads to uncover indications as to which teams oddsmakers and insiders think will cover...

Part 1) Successful Handicapping Starts With Abandoning Methods That Seem Like They Should Work Well For Making NBA Picks... But That Never Do:
When most sports bettors and basketball handicappers embark on a mission to make pro basketball picks, they call upon NBA stats and their knowledge of sports to try to determine which team has the best chance to cover the spread.

Get ready for some big news about this "loser approach." It's the wrong way to make basketball picks versus Las Vegas' NBA lines. This is how most people go about handicapping games, and almost everyone loses...

To make enough winning NBA picks to beat Las Vegas' basketball lines over the long run, you must start by analyzing the Vegas line on a given game to match the perspective of Las Vegas' oddsmakers.

Matching the perspective of Vegas' oddsmakers can be accomplished using a technique called Backwards Odds Analysis. With Backwards Odds Analysis, instead of looking forwards trying to determine if team A or if team B can cover the line, you look backwards to determine why the line on a given game involving team A and B has been set, adjusted, or maintained at a particular number... How did the line originate? Why is the line sitting at a specific number?

By analyzing the line in reverse, you'll be able to do two important things for increasing the success of your basketball picks:

1) You'll be able to shift your focus away from using statistics, sports knowledge, and other unprofitable techniques to pick which team you think will cover the point spread.
2) You'll be able to redirect your focus towards using indications in the line on a given game to identify which team oddsmakers & insiders think will cover.

Part 2) Indications in Las Vegas' NBA Lines and Point Spreads are Your Ticket to Pinpointing Which Teams Oddsmakers and Insiders Think Will Cover the Line in a Given Game:
Las Vegas' NBA lines are filled with valuable indicators that can be used to pinpoint which teams oddsmakers and insiders think will cover the line in a given game. By using Backwards Odds Analysis you can isolate these indications and tap into a rich source of basketball picks.

The key to using Backwards Odds Analysis to tap into this rich source of NBA picks is to understand that Vegas' NBA lines and NBA point spreads are the oddsmakers' instrument for dividing the betting action in half for a given game...

Phrased another way... The very existence of betting lines and point spreads gives Las Vegas oddsmakers an element of control over how the population as a whole decides to bet in a given game. Because as you shall see, the line for a game is not the oddsmakers' assessment of what the difference in final score will be... It is an assessment of what particular basketball point spread number will draw even action from the combination of sports bettors. Thus, you must first understand how Vegas' oddsmakers use betting lines to divide action in half before you can use Backwards Odds Analysis as the key to uncovering NBA picks... Are you ready to take a look into the inner workings of oddsmakers and NBA betting lines?

Part 3) How Oddsmakers use Pro Basketball Odds and Pro Basketball Point Spreads to Keep NBA Betting Action Divided in Half:
Las Vegas' oddsmakers are masters at using NBA lines and point spreads to keep betting action divided in half. By making adjustments in a given line or point spread oddsmakers can sway large numbers of sports bettors who have not yet made a decision on which team to bet on in a game to place their bet on the team that has "lesser action." Ask yourself, how often have you been undecided on a game only to make your decision after the line moved down 1/2 point, or up 1/2 point? The movement in the line was Vegas' effort to balance betting action, and often times movements can have a direct result on your betting decision.

Of course, when NBA lines and point spreads are moved, it can also sway sports bettors who have already placed a bet on a game-- to "put down" additional action on that game... Or to even reverse their direction and bet the other way to try to "sandwich the game" and hit both sides. But as far as Vegas' oddsmakers are concerned, keeping the action split at each odds line number (dollar number) or point spread is the key... Doing so allows Vegas to make its juice.

By flexing mastery over NBA odds and NBA point spreads Las Vegas oddsmakers have an amazing amount of control over who bets what amount, and at what point in time they bet that amount, thus enabling them to keep the action divided in half. However, before oddsmakers can even begin to make adjustments to a particular betting line to keep action divided in half, they must choose a starting point or "opening Vegas line" for the game.

Part 4) The Goal Of Oddsmakers When Creating Vegas' Opening NBA Lines and Point Spreads:
When creating opening lines, the goal for Vegas' oddsmakers is to choose basketball lines that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting action in half. Doing so guarantees Vegas that it can make the most juice.

If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner the line can be adjusted to draw even action, the more juice Vegas can guarantee for itself.

Phrased another way-- the more a line needs to be adjusted to keep betting action even, the more overall risk Vegas is exposed to, and the lower the profit Vegas stands to make. This is because Vegas can get stuck with uneven betting action for any given NBA odds line or NBA point spread number, which cuts into profits.

Therefore, you can see that Las Vegas' oddsmakers would be very interested in knowing what specific NBA point spread number or NBA odds line number would draw even betting action for a given game before having to release an opening line for that game to the public.

But before oddsmakers could know what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at in order to draw even action, oddsmakers would need to know which team sports bettors planned to put their money on in advance of that game, for a variety of different NBA odds line numbers. This brings us to the Las Vegas oddsmakers' greatest strength when it comes to using betting lines and point spreads to divide betting action in half.

The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing betting action in half is based on the fact that most sports bettors make their betting decisions by relying on the level of information they have collected about the matchup. As a result, Vegas' oddsmakers have developed techniques that allow them to measure the level of information prospective sports bettors know about a given game before having to create and release the opening line for that game.

One method oddsmakers use to measure the information level known to various classes of sports bettors about a game is to release an exclusive "unrefined" test line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or "Vegas insiders" to bet into.

For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined" test lines, its like having access to free money... Because if the betting line ends up being far off from the test line, the game can be sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit...

But it's well worth it for Vegas. Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to place bets against early test lines, oddsmakers get a chance to determine whether or not select insiders are betting the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of how much they are betting.

Collecting this type of information about how insiders are evaluating their selection on a given game helps the oddsmakers make an assessment of what the opening line will need to be set at in order to generate even betting action from the combination of inside sports bettors and general public sports bettors on a given game.

Of course oddsmakers also study general public betting patterns. But as a rule they are more concerned with measuring insider betting interest because insiders place bigger bets (which are harder to balance), and because insiders can at any moment have access to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.

For example, insiders may know:

  • what types of strategies the teams plan to use
  • whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play
  • which crew is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles
  • whether the starting center has a blister on his thumb
  • or if the point guard has a wart on his big toe...
Insiders can be in possession of so much pertinent info (a.k.a. inside info/inside reads) that never gets disseminated to the public prior to the start of the game that most people simply wouldn't believe it... The level of information that insiders possess is obviously the driving point for their bets. And since Vegas' oddsmakers provide insiders with an early test line to bet into so that they can measure the level of insider interest in a game before creating the opening line for the sole purpose of balancing action, Las Vegas' basketball odds and point spreads very often reflect the level of information that is known to insiders about a given game. This is the golden egg of NBA basketball handicapping.

So now you know the golden egg of NBA handicapping... It's not the teams that matter... It's not the stats that matter... It's the line on the game that matters. The line on the game shows what oddsmakers and what insiders know. But how can you extract these indications from the line to make NBA picks? How can you pinpoint which teams insiders and oddsmakers think will cover? You need to use Backwards Odds Analysis to examine the line in reverse.
Are you ready?

Part 5) How to Use Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA Odds and NBA Point Spreads to Pinpoint Indications in the Line as to Which Teams Oddsmakers and Insiders Think Will Cover:
With oddsmakers and insiders in possession of so much game deciding info, and with most of the public not having a clue as to how such information can affect the way Vegas' lines are treated, sports bettors who don't know how to read NBA lines are positioned to lose as many as 75% of their bets.

Consider the following progression of a typical matchup where inside information exists, as it does in nearly 50% of all matchups:
First, the oddsmakers must create the opening line. So they provide insiders with an early "unrefined" test line which allows oddsmakers to measure the level of inside interest.

The result of the test line shows that inside information exists as insiders are betting heavily one way.

So the opening line is released at a number that entices the general public to bet against the team that insiders are betting on. The money bet by the uninformed public counters the money placed by insiders keeping the action even.

Thus, oddsmakers can offset the presence of insider information by using the general publics' uninformed take on a game to set the line at a number that literally entices the public to balance insider action by betting the team that insiders and oddsmakers perceive as being the disadvantaged team.

Unreleased or inside information on a game can also manifest itself to insiders after the opening line has been set... In such cases, the line can once again be adjusted to entice the general public to bet on the lower probability or disadvantaged team to balance action.

Is any of this unethical?
Not really. After all, inside information is not illegal in sports. And it's not the oddsmakers' duty to report what they may or may not know about a given game.

But it is the oddsmakers' duty to set the line at a number that draws even action. If they didn't, Vegas couldn't consistently make any juice and you wouldn't be able to place sports bets... So when inside information or an inside read exists, oddsmakers simply react by setting the line at a number that balances action, even if it means enticing the public to bet on the team that insiders and oddsmakers perceive as being the disadvantaged team. Backwards Odds Analysis can help you pinpoint these games.

Part 6) Don't Fail to Acknowledge That the Perspective of Insiders and Oddsmakers Can Be Uncovered Using Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA Lines and Point Spreads:
If you fail to acknowledge that a Backwards Odds Analysis of Vegas' NBA lines and point spreads can be used to pinpoint indications as to which teams insiders and oddsmakers think will cover, you'll be at risk to experience "a never ending reduction" in your chances of winning sports bets as you'll be enticed time and time again into betting games with seemingly favorable odds when insider information is prevalent. Simply stated, by ignoring indications in the line, you're at risk to continue to lose bets like everybody else.

The key to turning the ship around and riding a wave of NBA picks is understanding how to use a Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA lines and point spreads to determine how hard they're being driven by inside information and/or inside reads... Of course public perception can come into play too... (How public perception exerts its affect on Vegas odds is something that wasn't covered). ProBasketballLOCKS.com isn't giving everything away!

Part 7) Your New Edge For Uncovering Winning NBA Picks:
Whether or not such game deciding info exists in a specific game can often be determined by an analysis of the Vegas line for that given game by a Vegas line specialist who knows exactly what to look for. This is the key to uncovering the oddsmakers' and insiders' true perspective in a given game.

In other words, using a Backwards Odds Analysis can yield clues as to which team in a given game insiders and oddsmakers think has the best chance to beat the line. And while there's no guarantee that you are going to win each bet you make when using such line indications, it is the most consistent method of beating Vegas' NBA odds and NBA point spreads short of receiving inside information direct from insiders and oddsmakers themselves.

Limiting yourself to a Backwards NBA odds analysis for bet selection can put you on the winning side with a much higher frequency compared to using "loser techniques" that don't work versus Vegas' lines like worrying about which team is better, which team has the superior record at home-- or which team has a better record on the road on Friday night.

Part 8) Getting NBA Picks Made Using a Backwards Odds Analysis of Vegas' NBA Lines:
If you're ready to get NBA picks made using Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA betting lines so that you can win more bets, you have come to the right place. ProBasketballLOCKS.com is the pioneer of this type of analysis for basketball bet selection. 23 years of studying the propensity of different types of teams to beat NBA lines with respect to how a line has been set and maintained by Vegas' oddsmakers is the key to pinpointing line indications as to which team insiders and oddsmakers view as possessing an unpublicized advantage in a given game.

So for long term capital appreciation of your basketball betting stash, let ProBasketballLOCKS.com expose the oddsmakers' and insiders' true "positional read" on NBA basketball games for you.

One final note before you move on to the NBA basketball pick(s) if currently available:
Don't ever bet "the ranch" on a single game... With a winning strategy there's no need to do it, you just pick an amount that's affordable to you and you place that amount per game plus the cost of any pick. If you don't have the discipline to do this, leave this site now because you are a prime candidate to lose money while possessing a winning record...

Of course, even if you do not have the discipline, getting the discipline is easy because you're becoming a smarter basketball handicapper by the moment... After all, you've just read an introduction about how to use Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas' pro basketball lines to beat Las Vegas at its own game. This already puts you far ahead of where most sports bettors will ever make it on the learning curve of NBA handicapping success.

So for you disciplined sports betting types...
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ProBasketballLOCKS.com hopes this has been a valuable introduction to using Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA odds and point spreads to make pro basketball picks by pinpointing indications as to which team oddsmakers and insiders think will beat the line in a given game.


 

 

 

 

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