Backwards Odds NBA Handicapping Analysis of Las Vegas NBA Odds and
An introduction to making NBA picks and predictions using Backwards
Odds Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA lines and NBA point spreads to
uncover indications as to which teams oddsmakers
and insiders think will cover...
Part 1) Successful Handicapping Starts With
Abandoning Methods That Seem Like They Should Work Well For Making NBA Picks...
But That Never Do:
When most sports bettors and basketball handicappers embark
on a mission to make pro basketball picks, they call upon
NBA stats and their knowledge of sports to try to determine
which team has the best chance to cover the spread.
Get ready for some big news about this "loser approach."
It's the wrong way to make basketball picks versus Las Vegas'
This is how most people go about handicapping games,
and almost everyone loses...
To make enough winning NBA picks to beat Las Vegas'
basketball lines over the long run, you must
start by analyzing the Vegas line on a given game to
match the perspective of Las Vegas' oddsmakers.
Matching the perspective of Vegas' oddsmakers can be accomplished using
a technique called Backwards Odds Analysis.
With Backwards Odds Analysis,
instead of looking forwards trying to determine if team A or if team B
can cover the line, you look backwards to
determine why the line on a given game involving team A and B
has been set, adjusted, or maintained at a particular number...
How did the line originate? Why is the line sitting at a specific
By analyzing the line in reverse, you'll be able to do
two important things for increasing the success of
your basketball picks:
1) You'll be able to shift your focus away from using
statistics, sports knowledge, and other unprofitable techniques to pick
which team you think will cover the point spread.
2) You'll be able to redirect your focus towards using indications
in the line on a given
game to identify
oddsmakers & insiders think will cover.
Part 2) Indications in Las Vegas' NBA Lines and Point Spreads are
Your Ticket to Pinpointing Which
Teams Oddsmakers and Insiders
Think Will Cover the Line in a Given Game:
Las Vegas' NBA lines are filled with valuable indicators that can be
used to pinpoint which teams oddsmakers and insiders think will cover
the line in a given game. By using Backwards Odds Analysis you can
isolate these indications and tap into a
rich source of basketball picks.
The key to using Backwards Odds Analysis to tap into this rich
source of NBA picks is to understand that
Vegas' NBA lines and NBA point spreads are the oddsmakers'
instrument for dividing the betting action
in half for a given game...
Phrased another way... The very existence of
betting lines and point spreads gives Las Vegas
oddsmakers an element of control over how the population
as a whole decides to bet in a given game.
Because as you shall see,
the line for a game is not the oddsmakers' assessment of what
the difference in final score will be... It is an assessment
of what particular basketball point spread number will draw even action from
the combination of sports bettors.
Thus, you must first understand how Vegas' oddsmakers
use betting lines to divide action in half before you can
use Backwards Odds Analysis
as the key to uncovering NBA picks...
Are you ready to take a look into the inner workings of oddsmakers and
NBA betting lines?
Part 3) How Oddsmakers use Pro Basketball Odds and Pro Basketball Point Spreads
to Keep NBA Betting Action Divided in Half:
Las Vegas' oddsmakers are masters at using NBA lines and point spreads
to keep betting action divided in half. By making adjustments
in a given line or point spread oddsmakers can sway large numbers of
sports bettors who have not yet
made a decision on which team to bet on in a game
to place their bet on the team that has "lesser action."
Ask yourself, how often have you been undecided on a game
only to make your decision after the line moved
down 1/2 point, or up 1/2 point? The movement in the line
was Vegas' effort to balance betting action, and often times
movements can have a direct result
on your betting decision.
Of course, when NBA lines and
point spreads are moved, it can also sway
bettors who have already placed a bet on a game-- to "put down"
additional action on that game... Or to even reverse their
direction and bet the
other way to try to "sandwich the game" and hit both sides.
But as far as Vegas' oddsmakers are concerned,
keeping the action split at each odds line number
or point spread is the key... Doing so allows
Vegas to make its juice.
By flexing mastery over
and NBA point spreads
Las Vegas oddsmakers have an amazing
amount of control over who
bets what amount,
and at what point in time they bet that amount, thus enabling them to
keep the action divided in half.
However, before oddsmakers can even begin to make
adjustments to a particular betting
line to keep
action divided in half, they must choose a starting point
or "opening Vegas line"
for the game.
Part 4) The Goal Of Oddsmakers When Creating Vegas' Opening
NBA Lines and Point Spreads:
When creating opening lines, the goal for Vegas' oddsmakers is
to choose basketball lines
that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting
action in half. Doing so guarantees Vegas that it
can make the most juice.
If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner
the line can be adjusted to draw even action,
the more juice Vegas can guarantee for itself.
Phrased another way-- the more a line needs to be adjusted
to keep betting action even,
the more overall risk Vegas is exposed to, and the lower the
profit Vegas stands to make.
This is because Vegas can get stuck with
uneven betting action for any given NBA odds line or NBA point
spread number, which cuts into profits.
Therefore, you can
see that Las Vegas' oddsmakers would be very interested in knowing
NBA point spread number or NBA odds line number
would draw even betting action for a given game before having
an opening line for that game to the
But before oddsmakers could know
what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at
in order to draw even action, oddsmakers
would need to know
sports bettors planned to put their money on in
advance of that game, for a variety of different NBA odds line numbers.
This brings us to the Las Vegas oddsmakers'
greatest strength when it comes to using betting lines
and point spreads to divide betting action in half.
The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing
betting action in half
is based on the fact that
most sports bettors make their betting decisions
by relying on the level of information they have
collected about the matchup. As a result, Vegas' oddsmakers
have developed techniques that allow them to measure
the level of information
prospective sports bettors
know about a given game before having to create and release
the opening line for that game.
One method oddsmakers use to measure the
information level known to various classes of
about a game is to release an exclusive "unrefined"
test line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or
"Vegas insiders" to bet into.
For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined"
test lines, its like
having access to free money... Because if the
betting line ends up being far off from the
test line, the game can be
sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit...
But it's well worth it for Vegas.
Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to
place bets against
early test lines, oddsmakers get a chance to determine
whether or not select insiders are betting
the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how
strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of how much they
Collecting this type of information about how
insiders are evaluating their
selection on a given game
helps the oddsmakers make an assessment of what the
opening line will need to be set at in order
to generate even betting action
from the combination of inside sports bettors and general
public sports bettors on a given game.
Of course oddsmakers also study general public betting patterns.
But as a rule they are more concerned with
measuring insider betting interest because
insiders place bigger bets (which are harder to balance),
and because insiders can at any moment have access
to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.
For example, insiders may know:
Insiders can be in possession of so much pertinent info
(a.k.a. inside info/inside reads)
that never gets disseminated to the public prior to the start of
the game that most people simply wouldn't believe it...
The level of information that insiders possess
is obviously the driving point for their bets.
since Vegas' oddsmakers provide insiders with an early test line to
so that they can
measure the level of insider interest in a game before
creating the opening line
for the sole purpose of balancing action, Las Vegas' basketball
point spreads very often reflect the level of information
that is known to insiders about a given game. This is the golden egg
of NBA basketball handicapping.
- what types of strategies the teams plan to use
- whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play
- which crew is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles
- whether the starting center has a blister on his thumb
- or if the point guard has a wart on his big toe...
So now you know the golden egg of NBA handicapping... It's not the teams
that matter... It's not the stats
that matter... It's the line on the game that matters.
The line on the game shows what oddsmakers and what insiders know.
But how can you extract these indications from the line
to make NBA picks? How can you pinpoint which teams
insiders and oddsmakers think will cover?
You need to use Backwards Odds
Analysis to examine the line in reverse.
Are you ready?
Part 5) How to Use Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas'
NBA Odds and NBA Point Spreads
to Pinpoint Indications in the Line as to
Which Teams Oddsmakers and Insiders
Think Will Cover:
With oddsmakers and insiders in
possession of so much game deciding info,
and with most of the public
not having a clue as to how such information can affect the
way Vegas' lines are treated,
sports bettors who don't know how to read NBA lines are
positioned to lose as many as 75% of their bets.
Consider the following
progression of a typical matchup where inside
exists, as it does in nearly 50% of all matchups:
First, the oddsmakers must create
the opening line. So they provide insiders
with an early "unrefined" test line which allows oddsmakers
to measure the level
of inside interest.
The result of the test line
shows that inside information exists
as insiders are betting heavily one way.
So the opening line is
released at a number
that entices the general public
to bet against the team that insiders
are betting on.
The money bet by
the uninformed public counters
the money placed by insiders
keeping the action even.
Thus, oddsmakers can offset the presence of insider
information by using the
general publics' uninformed take on a game to set the
line at a number
that literally entices the public to balance insider action
by betting the team that insiders and oddsmakers
perceive as being the disadvantaged team.
Unreleased or inside information on a game can also
manifest itself to insiders after the opening line
has been set...
In such cases, the line
can once again be adjusted to entice the general public to bet
on the lower probability or disadvantaged team
to balance action.
Is any of this unethical?
Not really. After all, inside
information is not illegal in sports.
And it's not the oddsmakers' duty to
report what they may or may not know about a
But it is the oddsmakers' duty to set the line at a number
that draws even action. If they didn't, Vegas couldn't
any juice and you wouldn't be able to place sports bets...
So when inside information or an inside read exists,
oddsmakers simply react by setting the line at a number that
balances action, even if it means enticing the
public to bet on the team that insiders
and oddsmakers perceive as being the disadvantaged team.
Backwards Odds Analysis
can help you pinpoint these games.
Part 6) Don't Fail to Acknowledge
That the Perspective of Insiders and Oddsmakers Can Be Uncovered Using
Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA Lines and Point Spreads:
If you fail to acknowledge that a Backwards Odds Analysis of
Vegas' NBA lines and point spreads can be used to pinpoint indications
as to which teams
insiders and oddsmakers think will cover,
at risk to experience "a never ending reduction" in your chances
of winning sports bets
as you'll be enticed time and time again into betting
games with seemingly favorable odds when insider information
Simply stated, by ignoring indications in the line,
you're at risk to continue to lose bets like everybody else.
The key to turning the ship around and riding a wave of
NBA picks is understanding how to
use a Backwards Odds
Analysis of Las Vegas' NBA lines and point spreads
how hard they're being driven by
inside information and/or
inside reads... Of course
public perception can come into play too...
(How public perception exerts its affect on Vegas
odds is something that wasn't covered).
ProBasketballLOCKS.com isn't giving everything away!
Part 7) Your New Edge For Uncovering Winning NBA Picks:
Whether or not such game deciding info
exists in a specific game can often be determined by
an analysis of the Vegas line for that given
game by a Vegas line specialist
who knows exactly what to look for.
This is the key to uncovering the oddsmakers' and insiders'
true perspective in a given game.
In other words,
using a Backwards Odds Analysis
yield clues as to which team in a given game
insiders and oddsmakers think has the best chance to beat the
And while there's no guarantee that you are going to win
each bet you make when using such line indications,
it is the most consistent method of beating Vegas' NBA odds and
NBA point spreads
short of receiving inside information direct from insiders and oddsmakers
Limiting yourself to a Backwards NBA odds analysis
for bet selection can put you on
the winning side with a much higher frequency
compared to using
"loser techniques" that don't work versus Vegas' lines like
which team is better,
which team has the superior record at
home-- or which team has a better record on the road on Friday night.
Part 8) Getting NBA Picks
Made Using a Backwards Odds Analysis of Vegas'
If you're ready to get
NBA picks made using Backwards Odds Analysis of
Las Vegas' NBA betting lines so that you can win
you have come to the right place.
is the pioneer of this type of
analysis for basketball bet selection.
23 years of studying the
propensity of different types of teams to
beat NBA lines with respect to how a line has been set
and maintained by Vegas' oddsmakers is the key to pinpointing
line indications as to which team
insiders and oddsmakers view as possessing an unpublicized
advantage in a given game.
So for long term capital appreciation of your
betting stash, let
expose the oddsmakers' and insiders' true "positional read"
on NBA basketball games for you.
One final note before you move on to the
NBA basketball pick(s)
if currently available:
Don't ever bet "the ranch" on a single game...
With a winning strategy there's no need to do it, you just pick
an amount that's affordable to you
and you place that amount per game plus
the cost of any pick. If you
don't have the discipline to do this, leave this site
now because you are a prime candidate to
lose money while possessing a winning record...
Of course, even if you do not have the discipline,
getting the discipline is easy
because you're becoming a smarter basketball handicapper
by the moment... After all,
you've just read
an introduction about how to use Backwards Odds Analysis
of Las Vegas' pro basketball lines to
beat Las Vegas at its own game. This already puts you
far ahead of where most sports
bettors will ever make it on the learning curve of NBA handicapping
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ProBasketballLOCKS.com hopes this has been a valuable introduction
to using Backwards Odds Analysis of
Las Vegas' NBA odds and point spreads
to make pro basketball picks by pinpointing indications
as to which team oddsmakers and insiders think will beat the line in a given game.
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